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Population problems are imaginary
By Thompson Ayodele and Olusegun Sotola
Thursday, 09 September 2010 00:00 Opinion - Columnists
A recent report warns that Nigeria is teetering on
the edge of a
demographic disaster. This warning is based on the
bludgeoning population in
which there is no corresponding economic expansion. The
report consequently argues
that the present population is out of balance and it
may spell doom as it increases to 213 million by
2050.
For the past three decades, there have been debates
whether there is a link
between population and economic growth. The argument has
been that increased population
retards economic growth. This assertion is dangerous.
It merely draws attention away from the real barriers to
economic growth.
There is the need for a rethink of accepted belief
regarding the so-called
population problem. At the centre of population policy
is whether individuals
themselves or politicians or national and international
civil servants should decide
the number of kids parents should have. However, an
increase in population is an impetus for growth.
The pattern of population
growth in Nigeria in the last two decades does not
indicate that an increase in
population will lead to demographic disaster.
Between 1991 and 2008, Nigeria population increased from
88 million to 150 million, an
increase of about 70 per cent. If an increase of about
70 per cent in 17 years did
not have demographic effect, then the argument that
demographic disaster will occur in 2050 when the
population climbs to 213
million (an increase of 42 per cent in 44 years) seems
not to hold water.
On the contrary, the problem is not too many people but
lack of economic freedom.
Therefore, the usual gloom-doom associated with
increased in population is
largely misplaced.
In actual fact, a long-term outlook of Nigeria
population indicates the
likelihood of a decline. The population increased by
over 70 per cent between 1991
and 2008 (17 Years), and it will be growing by only 42
per cent in 44 years. Since
the present day Nigeria society seems to consider
large family undesirable, the likelihood of a
decreased in population beyond
2050 is higher. The impression being created by the
report is that Nigeria is
overpopulated or heading toward overpopulation. This, of
course, is absolutely misleading.
Contrary to this, research has shown that the more the
people, the more the
prosperity. It is more likely to see highly creative and
innovative people in China,
India, Indonesia and Nigeria than other small countries.
Across the world, there are more millionaires in big
cities than sparsely populated
countryside. It may interest us to know that famine and
starvation has occurred in sparsely populated
countries than densely
populated ones. Julian Simon, in one of his
publications, argues that less
people don’t actually bring about economic growth. He
rhetorically asks: why are our
ancestors not more prosperous when they were just a few
thousands on the planet?
Globally, highly populated countries are important to
the world economy.
They provide the markets which drive entrepreneurship
and exchange of goods and
services. The key factor that attracts and retains
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
in Nigeria is not the nature of our political
system but the depth and size of the market. The
astronomical growth in the
Telecom and the IT industry in Nigeria are essentially
driven by demand which is a
function of the population. Because small countries
produce and consume only very few items and
suffer from scale
diseconomies, they are largely unattractive for big
investment except when they
have natural endowments.
The implication of reduced population in economic term
is on
entrepreneurship and economic development. This will
limit the market prospects for
future products. Increased in the number of newborns
alone can stimulate the
economy. They can create market for some set of goods
which interlink with the whole economy. More
importantly, they grow up into
productive work force. They marry, pay tax, defend the
country against external
aggression and care for the elderly.
A subtle agenda to foist on developing countries
policies that aimed at
artificially controlling population will undermine both
quantitative and qualitative
global development. Apart from making the world
underachieve its full
potentials, it will create demographic problems.
In China, there
are now 32 million more male than female under the age
of 20, sex selective abortion
account for almost all the excess. China also has high
rate of abandonment and infanticide of girl
child.
The beliefs that high population density breads poverty
flew in the face of facts. If
population density causes poverty, Japan and Hong Kong
should be the poorest parts of
the world today. These are areas with high
population density but highly prosperous despite
limited landmass.
Population growth might cause short-term losses in term
of cost but it is bound to
yield long-term gains. In other words, the long-term
benefits of high population
far outweigh the short-term costs. This is because as
said by Beisner “over their
lifetimes, people tend to produce more than they
consume,” the un-consumed balances usually add up
to increase the wealth and
value of the society. Little wonder production has
consistently outgrown
population.
Practical examples exist in aged society. Many developed
economies are at present
promoting population growth. This is noticeable in some
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) countries
where policy makers have designed policies aimed at
arresting the ageing
population. A perfect example is Australia. Since May
2004 Australia government has
announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial
A$3,000 per new child. The campaign since 2004
has been tagged: one baby for
your husband and one for your wife and one for the
country.
The National Party has promised to double the baby bonus
for stay-at-home mothers if
the coalition wins the federal election. In June,
Australia Senate passed a bill
which will pay all parents who stay home the minimum
wage of $570 a week for 18 weeks. These measures
are aimed at encouraging
families to have more children.
It is incontrovertible that human beings are the
ultimate resource. Other
resources are useless without human innovation and
exertion. An increase human’s
number should therefore not be viewed as a disaster. The
population problem is a bogeyman. It prevents us
from seeing human beings as
the ultimate resource. Rather proponents of high
population encourage people to
think that people are a burden who are incapable of
changing their economic
conditions without government help. However, the truth
remains that government is the big problem.
It is government policies which hinder wealth creation
that are keeping the people
poor, under-achieved and less innovative. Whether a
nation is poor or rich depends
on the availability of economic framework that
provides incentives for working hard and taking
risks. The key elements of
such framework are economic liberty, secured property
rights and fair and sensible
rules of the market that are enforced equally.
Nigeria should avoid health and demographic implication
associated with arbitrary
population control. Policy makers ought not see
population growth as a
problem. Rather we should picture 150 million human
brains daily striving to
improve their situations, solve economic problems and
above all create wealth. The projected 213
million people will be doing so
in 2050.
*Ayodele and Sotola are with the Initiative for Public
Policy Analysis, an
independent public policy think-tank based in Lagos.
Thompson Ayodele
Director
Initiative for Public Policy Analysis
P.O.Box 6434
Shomolu,Lagos
Nigeria
Email:thompson@ippanigeria.org
Backup: thompson.ayodele@gmail.com
Website: www.ippanigeria.org
*****Good Public Policy is Sound Politics**********
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