A look at Africa’s Development in climate change
By Masahudu Ankiilu Kunateh, Ghanadot
Accra, Sept 16, Ghanadot -
The World Bank’s latest GDP
growth projection for Sub-Saharan Africa for 2010 is 3.7 %,
compared with 1.3% for rich countries as a group and 2.5%
for developing countries as a group excluding India and
China.
Climate experts estimate that global warming of 2 degrees C
above pre-industrial temperatures could result in permanent
reductions in annual per capita consumption of 4-5% in
Africa (Nordhaus & Boyer, 2000; Stern, 2007). This could
also likely destroy 10-15 % of species (Parry and others
2007).
Rain-fed agriculture contributes about 30% of the region’s
GDP, but that source of income may start drying up. By 2080,
as much as 9-20% of the region’s arable land will become
much less suitable for agriculture. Even today, about 86% of
the land in Sub-Saharan Africa is moisture-stressed.
Africa suffers from natural fragility (two-thirds of its
surface area is desert or dry land) and high exposure to
droughts and floods, which will likely increase with climate
change. Devastating floods, once rare, have been reported
across the region. In 2000, flooding in Mozambique cost the
country an estimated $550 million, lowering national GDP by
1.5%.
Africa is rapidly urbanizing, with the urban population set
to exceed the rural by 2030. About 300 million additional
urban residents are expected over the next 25 years, making
climate-resilient urban planning critical.
By 2030, 90 million more people in Africa will be exposed to
malaria, a climate-related disease. This is a 14% increase
(Hay and others, 2006).
More than 550 million Africans lack access to electricity
and 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are currently in a
state of power crisis. On average, only 24% of the
population has access to modern energy. In Rwanda 93 in 100
people have no access; in the Democratic Republic of Congo,
94 in 100 people have no access.
Biomass provides 80% of the primary domestic energy supply.
Indoor air pollution from burning biomass contributes to the
respiratory infections that cause 17% of deaths among
children under age five.
The region has huge potential for renewable energy: it has
only used 8% of its hydropower potential, compared, for
example, to 30% in Latin America. However, exploiting these
resources requires both technology and finance.
Several countries in Africa are beginning to participate in
efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation and land
degradation (REDD). Big potential benefits could come from
future REDD instruments for Africa.
As poor people are exposed to climate change, social
protection systems become even more important.
Ethiopia's
productive safety net project includes a strong focus on
watershed protection, thus implementing adaptation
strategies to mitigate the effect of droughts and floods on
agricultural land.
Africa is in dire need of better monitoring and forecasting
systems. According to the World Meteorological Organization,
Africa has only one weather station per 26,000 sq km —
one-eighth the recommended minimum (Science and Development
Network, 2006).
Ghanadot
